Forum:2014 Atlantic hurricane season/June
June Yay!--Isaac829 04:02, June 1, 2014 (UTC) 90L.INVEST AOI:Over BOC An elongated area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche extends northeastward into the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Although shower activity is currently disorganized, some slow development of this nearly stationary disturbance will be possible over the next several days as environmental conditions become marginally conducive. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent This might become Arthur and the gfs is showing another storm in the long run so hurricane season its officially here.Allanjeffs 06:13, June 1, 2014 (UTC) :For me, I expect this storm to become a weak TS or TD. Happy hurricane season! AndrewTalk To Me 14:30, June 1, 2014 (UTC) ::We might see Arthur from this though it'll probably be a weakling. Hurricane season is officially here! Yay. Steve820 16:37, June 1, 2014 (UTC) ::::And...gone from NHC. Sorry Arthur, wait till later. Ryan1000 17:58, June 2, 2014 :::::...and, it's back on the NHC TWO :D. Probably won't develop though, it's at 10% (20%) and upper-level winds aren't favorable. Steve820 23:00, June 3, 2014 (UTC) 90L.INVEST Its here but I really doubt it will become Arthur but anyways if does form it will be weak.Allanjeffs 13:39, June 4, 2014 (UTC) :GFS sees this looping around in the BoC though the other models seem to take it towards a landfall midway between Veracruz and Tampico. It shouldn't become very strong, though flooding rains could still be a threat; Boris has already caused up to 12 inches of rainfall in some areas of southern Mexico, the NHC expects isolated areas to see upwards of 20 inches. Hopefully everyone stays safe down there. Ryan1000 21:05, June 4, 2014 (UTC) ::Flash floods and mudslides could be a big issue with this storm and Boris. Hopefully the guys down in southern Mexico are safe. Also, I still don't think it will become Arthur because environmental conditions are simply too unfavorable. Arthur might have to come a bit later, I'll be very surprised if this thing could actually pull itself together and become named. Steve820 00:12, June 5, 2014 (UTC) ::::It's up to 30% now, it might actually have a chance at becoming Arthur if it stays offshore. Ryan1000 12:21, June 5, 2014 (UTC) ::::The BOC for sure can make magic. This might become Arthur today if the hurricane hunter fine a circulation and the winds to warrant upgrade.Allanjeffs 13:58, June 5, 2014 (UTC) :::::Make that 40%...Ryan1000 23:38, June 5, 2014 (UTC) :::::It will go straight into Arthur if upgrade as it has already gale winds. We just need an air force plane to fly into they system so it can be upgrade.Allanjeffs 23:57, June 5, 2014 (UTC) :::::Up to 50% we might get TD 1 or TS Arthur depending of tomorrow.Allanjeffs 06:00, June 6, 2014 (UTC) ::::::70%...--Isaac829 17:03, June 6, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::It's almost out of time, has about 6-12 hours before it'll be moving ashore. Still has a shot at being Arthur though. Ryan1000 17:51, June 6, 2014 (UTC) I have doubts that this will be classified. The center of circulation is b-lining the coast at a pretty persistent clip. The NHC has classified storms near land in the past, but they weren't like this one devoid of any deep convection. Radar out of Alvarado shows pretty much nothing. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 18:57, June 6, 2014 (UTC) :90L has made landfall, no chance for TD 1.--Isaac829 21:22, June 6, 2014 (UTC) ::Spoke too soon Isaac, it's still at 70% and shower activity's been increasing. It could still become a depression before moving inland. Also, this invest looks very small on satellite imagery, it might be near Marco-sized. For more info check out the TWO: ::1. Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the ::center of a well-defined low pressure system is located along the ::coast of eastern Mexico near Vera Cruz. Associated shower activity ::has been gradually increasing over the past few hours, and an Air ::Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the disturbance ::has reported surface winds of 30 to 35 mph to the northeast and ::east of the center thus far. If thunderstorm activity persists near ::the low center, a tropical depression could still form before the ::system moves slowly inland over eastern Mexico later tonight and ::tomorrow. Whether or not a tropical depression forms, this ::disturbance will produce gusty winds and heavy rains, along with ::life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, over portions of ::southeastern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. ::* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. ::* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. ::So it seems likely we'll get a depression from this before it ACTUALLY moves inland! But will it be named Arthur? Probably not but it's still possible if it rapidly strengthen! Steve820 00:58, June 7, 2014 (UTC) :::Not anymore. Thunderstorm activity in the invest has basically crashed apart after landfall, and upper level winds plus land proximity will inhibit any further development of it. Mexico should still ontinue to see heavy floods, however. The chance of tropical development has fallen down to 20% for both the next two and five days. AndrewTalk To Me 11:32, June 7, 2014 (UTC) ::::Down to near 0%, yep, this invest has busted. It's one of the biggest Atlantic busts I've seen in awhile! Well, Arthur has to wait, hopefully it'll form this month. Steve820 16:49, June 7, 2014 (UTC) ::::Guys this will probably be upgrade to a td or even a ts in post analysis but we will probably need to wait and see.Allanjeffs 22:28, June 7, 2014 (UTC) AoI:Off Florida AoI:Off Florida Surface trough, sitting at 1019mb, probably dissipating soon, but NHC marks it yellow. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:31, June 19, 2014 (UTC) :The AOI's chances of formation are at near 0% for both the next 48 and 120 hours. I doubt this will become tropical, as it is in unfavorable conditions. Our first tropical cyclone will probably come in July. AndrewTalk To Me 22:45, June 19, 2014 (UTC) ::Yeah, this AOI isn't going to develop at all. Even though it's up to 10%, it's just an extremely random AOI that will completely die within unfavorable conditions soon. What a waste of time and energy making and writing that TWO and GTWO. Next! Steve820 03:49, June 20, 2014 (UTC) :::Steve I am going to give you an advice never but never understimate a system until it dissipate I have seen worse looking Aois developed into storms.EX looks when Jose was declared look at Patty of 2013 and even look at 90L that almost become a ts.(Might be upgrade) not saying this will develop but we should see.Allanjeffs 04:40, June 20, 2014 (UTC) ::::Surprisingly, despite a lack of change or organization in the AOI, its chances of formation in the next two and five days is now 10%. I still doubt it will develop, however, given the unfavorable conditions. AndrewTalk To Me 12:40, June 20, 2014 (UTC) :::::It seems like shower activity diminished but its still 10% as of the latest TWO. I still really don't think it'll develop. And Allan, this AOI won't pull a Jose or Patty, it's in too unfavorable conditions. Steve820 01:41, June 21, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Allan has a point, for example, TD15 never had any deep convection throughout its existence as a TC, Jerry and Jose were all just bare LLCs. The most important factor for formation is close circulation. 1013+mb tropical depressions have been declared before and many of them have formed east off Florida. It's currently in a situation similar to Cristobal or TD1 and they have formed in fairly unfavorable conditions. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 02:34, June 21, 2014 (UTC) :::::::The AOI is off the TWO, now being swept into a trough. For the record, the last time the Atlantic made it through June without getting a tropical cyclone was 2004, ten years ago (counting 2009's TD One). I think it would be nice if that madness took a break this year. AndrewTalk To Me 12:36, June 22, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::Yeah, I also hope we make it through June without any storms since it'll be the first time since 2004 that happened. But I hope we'll see Arthur soon, I mean, if this inactivity continues we might have a season more pathetic than 2013! Steve820 18:05, June 22, 2014 (UTC)